How to Read the Houthis’ Late Entry Into the Iran War

My reading for the Stimson Center. Evidence on supply chains, fuel, and interdiction suggests the Houthis cannot sustain what they just announced. The real threat remains on the ground inside Yemen.

I published this article today for the Stimson Center to explain the Houthis’ month-long delay and how to read their launch from an operational standpoint.

The evidence shows that the interdiction campaign launched last year has effectively degraded the Houthis’ supply chain. Bandar Abbas is under bombardment. Shipments are being intercepted at sea. The fuel infrastructure has been hit by Israeli strikes and U.S. Treasury sanctions. The last seized cargo heading to Hodeidah was copper wire and medicines. Their ability to launch is constrained and reliant on smuggling routes being squeezed from all sides.

That said, the risk cannot be eliminated. Reports from Yemen’s internationally recognized government indicate that IRGC personnel entered Hodeidah by dhow from the Horn of Africa in the days before the March 28 launch. If personnel can still get in, so can components, and the threat can escalate.

For the full breakdown, read the piece here at the Stimson Center